World

US intelligence failed to predict Afghanistan takeover, classified docs say

12:20, 29 October 2021
US intelligence failed to predict Afghanistan takeover, classified docs say Photo: replyua.net

The US intelligence agencies faced a massive failure in predicting the rapid Taliban* takeover of the capital of Afghanistan Kabul while the US troops had been in the country at that moment when Ghani’s government collapsed, according to a report issued on Thursday.


The Wall Street Journal summed up data, which indicate that the intelligence agencies had been tracking the Taliban activities from spring 2020 until July 2021, and reconnaissance was aware of the growing advance of Taliban insurgents presuming the Afghan government would not outlive the possible attack without US’ assistance.

But not a single of two dozen assessments could forecast that the leaders of the Taliban will make statements being indoors of the presidential palace by August 15 when US forces were still in Afghanistan.

The outlet received material from the following key intelligence agencies: the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the State Department’s Intelligence.

The report regarding the prediction of Ghani’s government end was issued on May 17 by the CIA just past a month after Biden announced the complete US troops withdrawal agenda. The assumption of Ghani’s fall in the report was predicted to happen by the end of the year.

The following report issued by the CIA less than a month after the previous one read that the Taliban were able to seize all the country within two years. A report issued on June 4 by the Defense Intelligence Agency said that the insurgents would go on capturing Afghanistan’s cities and rural communities over the next year before considering a month later that Kabul would not fall, according to a source familiar with the report.

US President Biden believed that Kabul could withstand the Taliban offensive and the idea of Afghanistan's opportunity to resist the terrorist was central to Biden’s drawdown plans, said the newspaper.

Nonetheless, the two-decade-long training of Afghanistan’s army by the US forces and $2 billion worth of expenses on the American mission in the country seemed to have gone for nothing as the armed insurgents could seize the country within just a week.

The representatives of all four agencies have refused to put a comment on what had happened, yet a senior administration official acknowledged they revealed a “mixed picture.”

“Directionally, they were all correct that things were going to deteriorate. They are not oracles,” the senior administration official told the paper.

*Taliban is a terror organization banned in the US, Russia, and many other countries.